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    來源:海鑫鋼網責任編輯:小鄧時間:2019年06月06日 09:33手機海鑫鋼網

    1、螺紋、熱卷:近期煉鋼利潤大幅萎縮,熱卷利潤已接近盈虧平衡,下游冷軋已基本虧損,若利潤進一步下跌,則鋼廠有可能會通過增加淡季檢修的方式降低供應調節供需平衡,短期內成本線對鋼價形成支撐。但是成本支撐邏輯也受原料基本面考驗,鐵礦石供需偏緊局面在逐步緩和,焦炭已有第一輪調降的呼聲出現,利潤下滑后廢鋼添加需求減弱,煉鋼成本亦有松動的可能,從中長期看供需邏輯對于鋼價的引導作用依然更強。從唐山公布的6月環保限產政策來看,環保對于鋼材供應的實際影響有限,加之6月空氣質量普遍較好,短期內鋼材高供應的局面仍較難改善。而淡季需求走弱,使得鋼材庫存降幅明顯收窄,鋼廠環節庫存由降轉增。考慮到未來高溫降雨天氣影響將逐步增強,淡季需求有進一步走弱的可能。若供應無法有效下降,則鋼材供需或繼續轉弱,鋼材庫存拐點或將到來。昨日ZG產存數據顯示,螺紋產量環比微降0.84%,廠庫環比增加8.93%,社庫環比降3.92%,總庫存由降轉增;熱卷產量環比增加2.1%,社庫環比增加3.35%,鋼材供需結構呈現邊際轉弱的跡象。鋼價仍有下行壓力。綜合看,鋼價震蕩趨弱。策略建議:單邊:新單把握逢高介入10月空單的機會;組合:謹慎者耐心持有賣RB1910-買RB2001反套組合,目標200-220。

    2、鐵礦石:巴西澳洲鐵礦石發運量逐步回升,結合船期考慮,本周起外礦到港資源量或將逐步觸底回升。受環保限產、淡季檢修等因素限制,6月鐵礦石需求較難進一步增長。供增需穩,供應偏緊局面或將逐步緩和,港口庫存降幅可能將逐漸放緩直至企穩。更重要的是,由于國內鋼材供需季節性走弱,鋼價回調致鋼廠利潤大幅萎縮,部分板材企業已進入虧損階段,若利潤進一步萎縮,鋼廠或將通過增加檢修、打壓原材料采購價格等方式來維持自身盈利,對礦價形成較強壓制。同時,受外礦價格大幅回落影響,鐵礦石進口利潤窗口打開,亦削弱了礦價的支撐。不過,淡水河谷礦山停產等因素造成的本年度供應缺口暫無被彌補的跡象,而我國生鐵產量同比大幅增加,鐵礦石需求有超預期增量,供需相對偏緊導致了我國港口鐵礦石庫存也自高點下降2400萬噸,這在中長期中對礦價或形成較強支撐。綜合看,鐵礦石價格走勢偏震蕩。策略建議:單邊:新單暫時觀望;組合:把握鐵礦石9-1正套機會。

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