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    來源:海鑫鋼網責任編輯:小鄧時間:2019年06月12日 09:19手機海鑫鋼網

    今年來,鐵礦石身上發生的故事尤其多。在端午節假期后,不甘寂寞的鐵礦石期貨再次發力。

    繼昨日大漲之后,6月11日鐵礦石期貨繼續上攻。午盤開盤后,鐵礦石期貨主力1909合約攀升,漲幅直接沖到6%,并持續封漲停至收盤。與此同時,A股市場上,鐵礦石概念股出現普漲,宏達礦業(維權)、海南礦業、金嶺礦業集體漲停。

    1

    淡水河谷再關9座礦壩

    端午節假期,一則“淡水河谷將對其位于巴西米納斯吉拉斯的9座尾礦壩的拆除及生態恢復進行投資19億美元”的消息不脛而走。受該消息刺激,鐵礦石主力期貨價格連續兩日上揚。

    淡水河谷官方文件顯示,在9座尾礦壩中,有2座尾礦壩將在3年內完全停用(包含生態恢復工作),5座將在停用前先轉建成為下游尾礦壩,另外2座將在停用工作完成前3年內增加其穩定性。

    據悉,淡水河谷于今年1月發生潰壩事故后,其官方很快作出回應,宣布加快關停有類似安全隱患的其余10座上游鐵礦大壩,有一座于前期關停,剩余9座即是此次即將關停的大壩。

    從年初到年中,淡水河谷方面的消息經過多次反轉,反復擾動國內鐵礦石期貨的價格。有分析人士認為,市場對于此事已經有較為充分的預期,并且經過端午節假期的消化,關停消息傳來并沒有對市場帶來直接的沖擊。

    從市場反應來看,也證明了這一觀點。受消息面沖擊,6月10日開盤時,鐵礦石期貨價格就應該直接攀升,但實際上,6月10日早間,鐵礦石期貨價格并沒有大幅波動,直到臨近收盤時才出現大幅拉升。

    那么,此輪鐵礦石期價大幅上漲背后的原因何在?

    2

    供需關系推動上漲

    6月10日公布的海關數據顯示,中國5月鐵礦石進口量從4月創下的18個月低點回升,但仍遠低于上年同期水平,主要受巴西、澳大利亞供應下降影響。行業數據顯示,國內港口進口鐵礦石庫存已降至兩年半來最低水平。截至6月7日,國內45個港口鐵礦石庫存為12158萬噸,逼近12000萬噸關口,較4月5日14843萬噸的高點下降了2685萬噸。

    與此同時,國內生鐵產量卻在大幅增長,對鐵礦石的需求產生了直接的帶動。今年1-4月,我國生鐵產量2.63億噸,同比增幅達9.60%。一方面供應收縮,另一方面需求不斷擴張,市場對于今年鐵礦石出現供給缺口的擔憂不斷加劇。

    瑞達期貨分析師對《國際金融報》表示,目前,國內鋼廠利潤出現大幅收縮,但開工率維持高位,鐵礦石需求整體也處于高位,港口庫存持續下滑對礦價構成支撐。

    另外,市場流傳“力拓7、8月份塊礦生產供應方面或有一定影響,到時候7、8月份的小長協供應或調換成PB全粉供應,或將降低部分小長協的量去緩解大長協供應方面的缺口”。貿易商方面表現為挺價惜售,鋼廠方面則表現為謹慎采購。上述分析師指出,操作方面,建議回調擇機做多。

    3

    后市如何發展

    經過上周的調整,鐵礦石是否又將迎來一波上漲?

    從后市來看,相關專家認為,鐵礦石短期反轉的可能性比較大,或將出現二次觸頂的情況,也不排除短期突破至1905合約的高點。

    信達期貨發布的研究報告指出,一方面,中長期鐵礦石庫存處于低位,供應大減,非主流礦雖有復產但仍難填缺口。另一方面,需求端鋼材產量大增,鐵礦石需求強勁,基本面供需偏緊格局仍未解決。加上近期外礦發運量大幅回升,現貨端供給預計會有短暫緩解。期價方面,期貨合約大幅貼水,而基本面向好,現貨價格易漲難跌,期價預計調整后將繼續上行,建議價格企穩后做多。

    此外,南華期貨相關分析師對《國際金融報》表示,目前鋼廠生產維持在高位水平,限產力度仍不及預期,但鋼廠對礦價高位接受度下降,鋼廠庫存增幅不大,主動補庫意愿偏弱,基本按需采購。貿易商現貨偏緊,需求端支撐減弱。上周澳大利亞、巴西總發貨量增加,其中澳大利亞發運量轉增波動較為明顯,但增量在中國市場不大。

    “由于此前受影響礦區恢復較慢,短期內產量難有較大回升空間。到港量本周低位回升,主流粉塊礦均有一定小幅回升,但仍比去年平均水平低100萬噸左右,港口庫存維持偏緊狀態。短期來看,高爐需求仍將持續,礦價下行空間有限。”上述分析師稱。

    0
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